Multiple election prediction platforms have shifted toward the Republican candidate
Donald Trump has opened up his largest lead over Kamala Harris in the betting odds for the White House just three weeks before the November election.
Both US and international betting markets shifted in favor of a Trump victory over the weekend, with prediction sites like BetOnline, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi all showing Trump’s presidential chances ahead of those of the Democratic nominee and current vice president.
It’s the first time Trump has been on top of the betting market since the September 10 presidential debate, in which Harris was widely regarded as the winner. The Democratic candidate’s polling, however, has been stagnating since then, while Trump has been on the rise.
The Republican nominee took a particularly sharp lead with BetOnline, where he stood at -140 to Harris’ +120 as of Monday. With Bet365, the vice president’s bookmaking position stood at +110 to Trump’s -138, while they were at +115 versus -135 respectively with Bovada, as of October 10.
A negative sign indicates that bookmakers believe the odds favor that person to win, while a plus sign indicates the underdog.
A slew of other bookmaking platforms also indicated a shift in Trump’s favor, helping the Republican to close the gap on his rival. According to prediction platform Kalshi, Trump had a 54% chance of winning the presidential election with Harris at 46% as of Monday.
The Election Betting Odds tracker showed that Harris’ chances of winning the race have slipped since the start of the month. A week ago, she had a 50.1% chance of taking the White House, but as of Tuesday this figure was down to 44.3%, while Trump now has a 55.1% chance of winning on November 5.
Meanwhile, Polymarket says the former president has the edge in six out of seven key swing states. The Republican candidate is predicted to win Arizona (68%), Georgia (64%), Pennsylvania (54%), Michigan (52%), North Carolina (63%), and Wisconsin (52%), the oddsmaker’s data shows.
The only battleground state where Harris has maintained a slight lead is Nevada, where she was given a 51% chance of victory, while Trump’s chances stood at 49%.
