The most expensive Democratic House primary in history concludes Tuesday, as New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman fights to retain his seat despite massive spending from the pro-Israel lobby aimed at sidelining progressives in Congress.

Polls in the Bronx and Westchester close at 9 p.m., and results are expected Tuesday night. Polling in the race, including one funded by consultants working against Bowman, suggested that he was heading for a loss. Bowman’s internal polling showed him leading by 1 percentage point. 

In total, outside groups have spent $23 million on the race to unseat Bowman. More than 60 percent of that money has come from one group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which poured more than $14 million into the race over the course of five weeks. In total, progressive groups backing Bowman spent $1.75 million on the race. 

AIPAC’s spending funded ads that clogged TV spots in New York, as well as a barrage of mailers, text messages, and phone calls attacking Bowman and supporting his opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer. The expenditure — unmatched by any other single outside group spending on Democratic primaries this cycle and historically unprecedented — has turned the race into a referendum on the power of the pro-Israel lobby to oust progressives critical of Israel’s human rights abuses from Congress. 

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Outside Groups Spent $285,000 Backing Jamaal Bowman. AIPAC Alone Just Dropped Nearly $2 Million to Attack Him.

AIPAC encouraged Latimer to run against Bowman and helped funnel Republican money into his campaign as part of its plan to spend $100 million to oust members of the Squad who led calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.

After AIPAC failed to recruit its preferred candidates to challenge Rep. Summer Lee, D-Pa., and challengers against other Squad members failed to pick up steam, AIPAC shifted its focus to propelling challengers against Bowman and Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo. 

AIPAC has spent just over $2 million so far on the race against Bush and is backing her opponent, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell.

Bowman’s race is the biggest test yet of AIPAC’s new strategy. The group shifted its priorities from lobbying Congress to spending directly on campaigns by launching a political action committee and a super PAC in 2021. 

Other groups in AIPAC’s orbit have joined its electoral push. Democratic Majority for Israel, a group that shares donors and other ties with AIPAC, has spent just over $1 million on the race against Bowman.

The influx of AIPAC election spending has shifted the electoral calculus of the Democratic Party. Historically, Democrats took drastic measures to protect incumbents from primary challenges, but party leaders have done little to support progressive incumbents facing an onslaught of attacks from AIPAC and its allies. 

What changed? In the past, party leaders went all in to protect their own against progressive insurgents.

During the 2018 cycle, Democrats blacklisted campaign vendors who worked with progressive primary challengers. When several incumbents faced challengers from their left last cycle, House Democratic leaders, including Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., launched a new political action committee to back their members. And a new dark-money group cropped up to help the cause. 

Party leaders have been active in fighting off progressive challengers. Jeffries has campaigned around the country alongside incumbents facing challengers from their left. 

As leading pro-Israel lobbying groups poured millions into the race to oust Bowman, however, Democratic leaders have been less unified in their outspoken support for incumbents than in previous cycles.

Jeffries has not appeared on the campaign circuit with Bowman, even though both members represent districts in New York. Jeffries endorsed Bowman in March, and his leadership PAC gave $5,000 to Bowman’s campaign in December. He recorded a robocall for Bowman’s campaign in the days before the primary. (Jeffries’s office did not respond to a request for comment.)

Asked last year what he and other Democratic leaders would do to protect incumbents facing attacks from AIPAC and groups like Democratic Majority for Israel and Mainstream Democrats PAC, Jeffries responded briefly: “Outside groups are gonna do what outside groups are gonna do. I think House Democrats are going to continue to support each other.”

Another difference from the time when Democrats would rally aggressively around incumbents is that this time, the group funding the primary challenge is also funding and endorsing Democratic leaders who have endorsed Bowman. Democrats, especially the party’s heavy hitters, have long had close relationships with AIPAC, speaking at its annual conferences and leading its sponsored junkets to Israel. Since AIPAC started giving directly to candidates last cycle, Jeffries has received more than $1.5 million from its PAC and been endorsed by the group.

That leaves figures like Jeffries, as well as the next top two Democratic House leaders, both endorsing Bowman and accepting millions of dollars from the group funding his ouster. Jeffries; House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass.; and House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., have taken more than $3 million from AIPAC’s PAC since 2021. Two other AIPAC-backed members in New York, Reps. Gregory Meeks and Yvette Clarke, have endorsed Bowman. Meeks has received just under $800,000 from AIPAC’s PAC since 2021, and Clarke has received just under $48,000. (Spokespersons for Clark, Aguilar, Meeks, and Clarke did not respond to requests for comment.)

AIPAC has given millions more to other Democratic leaders who have similarly built a reputation for protecting incumbents. When Jeffries launched a political action committee to protect members in 2021, he did it alongside Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., who has received more than $1.6 million from AIPAC’s PAC since 2021. 

On Monday, Gottheimer endorsed Latimer. 

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